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Interview on scenarios of political change and impact on education in Palestine

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The Al-Shabaka Scenario Matrix is a policy-driven research initiative by Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network. It engages with and leads a Palestinian-led scenarios assessment exercise, and explains the implications and consequences of future political scenarios for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza from policy and sectoral perspectives. Importantly, while the scope of analysis for this project is primarily limited to the West Bank and Gaza, these geographical parameters should in no way be construed as a reduction of Palestine and its people to these areas.

The matrix presents and analyzes various scenarios that Palestinians are likely to encounter in the near future, namely: the continuation of the status quo; the dismantlement, collapse, or reconfiguration of the Palestinian Authority (PA); the revival of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO); the escalation of popular confrontation with the Israeli occupation/outbreak of a new Palestinian intifada; and an abrupt development, such as the vacancy of the presidential office or the formation of a new legislative council.

The matrix utilizes a sectoral approach, analyzing implications and consequences of these scenarios across specific sectors. In other words, it examines the interaction between the sectors themselves and the different future scenarios. To date, the following five sectors are examined: health; governance, security, and the rule of law; the economy; education; and the social sector. Political analysis is likewise provided for each scenario. Further sectors are anticipated to be included in the matrix in subsequent phases.

This interview was organised by Al-Shabaka to highlight key findings of this report.

To see the full reports related to this think-tank activity, read Implications of Reviving the PLO for Palestinian Education and Implications of a Palestinian Popular Uprising for Education and in case of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority The full discussion of scenarios and their implications on Political situation, Health, Governance & Security, Economy, Education, and Society can be viewed through the Scenario Matrix. For more detials on the implication of political changes of Education, see the following articles: